IV. International
(12-16-08)
.
While the economic
crisis is affecting
Asia
because America is the final destination of their
products, the banking crisis has not been severely felt.
Asian countries instituted stricter overnight measures
in the financial sector after the 1997 crisis there.
.
Singapore,
a city-state and one of the greatest economic success
stories of the20th century, is now in recession, with
negative growth during the last 2 quarter. The 2008
growth projection of about 7% at the beginning of the
year has been revised to about 2%.
.
The leaders of
India’s
main opposition (Rajnat Singh of Bharatiya Janata Party)
urged the government “to avenge the reported terror
attacks” and hit back at arch-rival Pakistan, the
Press Trust of India said.
.
One of the most
important positions in the Obama administration to fill
is that of ambassador to Beijing.
China
has become key to America getting through the worsening
economic crisis. The American ambassador will need to
make sure that China sees its interests as aligned with
America. Or, things will get very ugly.
.
To sum up these deficits which could fetch between $1
trillion to $1.5 trillion, or between 7% and 11% of GNP,
America has to get someone to buy its debt. And the only
country with cash to do so is China.
.
China has options. They will certainly try to keep
American consumption going, but if it became clear that
it wasn’t working, they have a Plan B. Plan B would
focus on boosting China’s own consumption through
government spending and easing credit to its people.
(Fareed Zakaria, Editor, Newsweek International)
. Hong Kong
has a population of 7 million and an economy bigger than
that of the state of WA. But economists say Hong Kong
trails its rivals in array of factors, including quality
of life (notably air pollution), a smaller
finance-industry labor pool, and a lack of certain
developed markets, such as commodities trading. Yet as
Asia drives more
of the global growth and wealth, the talent is likely to
follow.
.
Hong Kong’s
light regulation stands to benefit from a forecast
flight of capital to the East.
Hong Kong’s stock market
has fallen more than 50% this year and analysts expect
the slump to continue through next year. Hong Kong
is in recession but many people there seem to take
things in stride.
.
Hong Kong has been through worse before. The last
downturn lasted 7 long years from the Asian financial
crisis in 1997 to the SARS epidemic in 1993. The other
is a belief among some, in and outside Hong Kong, that
the world economic order is shifting from the West to
the East, pushed by China’s rapid growth and now the
sub-prime financial contagion.
.
Thanks to China’s booming economy, Hong Kong has
surpassed New York in the number of IPO’s (initial
public offerings) in recent years. As much as 70% of
Hong Kong’s
economic growth now depends on the mainland. The number
of Chinese millionaires has jumped 20% last year, an
increase second only to
India, according to
Merrill Lynch and Cap Gemini. The Boston
Consulting Group estimates China has over 391k
millionaires.
. Singapore
at the outset may be
the envy of many countries for the economic success of
its people (at more than $27k per annum), 31st
in the world, way ahead of its neighbors, according to
the Economist. China’s elite CCP (Chinese
Communist Party) cites it as a model of one-party rule
while a growing economic ally.
.
A closer look presents a
different picture. Its claim of model democracy is a
farce as there is no freedom of speech and assembly.
No respect for human rights when one uses lawsuits to
silence critics (to stifle their right to criticize the
government), and no transparency in government to
monopolize the media and control speech unless there is
something they would rather their people not know.
.
The case of Chee Soon Juan (Ph D in neuro-psychology
from U. of GA), secretary of opposition Singapore
Democratic Party which has no more than 3 seats in
Parliament, was jailed off and on in 1999 through 2006
for speaking out in public without a permit. For
comparing the government of former P.M. Lee Yuan Kew and
his son, P.M. Lee Hsiu Loong, to a charity enmeshed in
scandal, he was ordered to pay them $490k. He exposed
the farce of Singapore as a “democracy.”
.
The South Korean
Defense Ministry had used balloons to deliver
propaganda to the North, a practice that ended in 2000
after a conciliatory North-South summit. The long,
tube-shaped balloons are used today and made by hand
from sheets of vinyl and filled with hydrogen at the
border.
. Leaflets
dropped this fall in the North have infuriated the
government there, which is believed to have become
particularly sensitive to personal attacks aimed at Kim
since the stroke he reportedly suffered in August and
the subsequent firestorm of speculation about his mental
and physical competence.
. The
problem is exacerbated when South Korea Pres. Lee
Myung-bak took office in Feb and pledged to reverse
10-year old policy of giving substantial and largely
unconditional ad to the North until the latter makes
progress on nuclear disarmament and human rights.
.
There are 14,431
North Korean defectors living in South Korea,
according to the latest government count. Only
one (Shin Dong-lyuk) is
known to have escaped to the South from a prison camp in
the North. In camp #14, the North Korean political
prison, where he was born and watched the hanging of his
mother after failing in her attempt to escape.
.
Only a few decades ago the South Koreans had their own
human rights issues. But rapid growth and prosperity
have made them forget. Out of the total population of
South Korea, only .001% has any real understanding of or
interest in North Korea. They were overwhelmingly
interested in economic growth and higher salaries.
. The South
has seen the messiness of German unification. They worry
about political collapse in the impoverished North and
are afraid that dealing with it could lower their living
standards. Pres. Lee who took power in Feb has taken a
harder line on North Korea but the majority of South
Koreans are reluctant to condition assistance on issues
such as prison camps, slave labor and torture.
. Philippine
lawmakers allied
with Pres. Arroyo (GMA) voted (11/26) to throw out the
latest impeachment bid against her for alleged
large-scale corruption. Voting 42-8, the House Justice
Committee ruled the “complaint insufficient in
substance” to impeach her. This was the 4th
impeachment attempt in 4 years. Her term ends 2010.
.
Complaint stemmed from
allegations that she and her husband were directly
involved in a $329-million national Internet broadband
deal with Chinese firm 27E Corp in 2006. The deal has
been scrapped by GMA amid allegations of massive
corruption.
.
Another complaint accused her for diverting million of
dollars in agricultural funds to her election campaign
in 2004 and of tacitly backing hundreds of unsolved
political killings blamed on the military. Former ally
Rep. Jose de Venecia was the main endorser of a 400-page
complaint. He was ousted as Speaker earlier this year.
. Thailand’s
Constitutional Court
brought down the government by disbanding 3 top ruling
coalition parties, finding them guilty of electoral
fraud. It also banned P.M. Somchai Wongsawat and other
top leaders from politics for 5 years. A Thai historian
said the end of the airport siege was just an
intermission, a temporary relief.
.
Months of protests and
political uncertainty have hammered Thailand’s economy
and its vital tourism industry. The crisis also severely
dented Thailand’s image. Some people have been killed
and scores injured in clashes in recent months.
.
The protest group wants to abandon the system of
one-person one-vote, and instead have a mixed system in
which most representatives are chosen by profession and
social group.
.
Although it has managed
to paralyze the political process for the last 6 months,
the anti-government PAD (People’s Alliance for
Democracy) has had little success in articulating an
alternative vision to end
Thailand’s
political stalemate.
.
Unable to win at the
ballot box or to frighten the government into resigning,
the group has been reduced to trying to provoke the sort
of violence that would force the army to stage a coup.
But that tactic is alienating its supporters. Besides,
the army chief made it clear there would be no coup even
if violence breaks out.
.
PAD was able to attract only 20k, smaller than expected,
and a threatened strike by state enterprise workers
caused little disruption. Despite its success in
disrupting operations at Bangkok’s new Subarnabhumi
Airport, it is struggling to maintain momentum. It will
be another blow to tourism industry.
. India
has clear and
incontrovertible proof that an Islamist militant group
based in Pakistan (Laskar-i-Taiba)) planned the attacks
and the group’s leaders were trained and supported by
Pakistan’s ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence)
agency. It even has names of the handlers.
.
Although US analysts
acknowledged historical ties between Lashkar and ISI as
well as more recent contacts between militants and
Pakistan’s intelligence officers, they said they were
not convinced that
Pakistan
supported the attacks in any significant way.
.
“We respect the international community to wake up and
recognize that terror anywhere and everywhere
constitutes a threat to world peace and prosperity,”
says Julian P.M. Manmohan Singh
.
Although debate
continues about how to manage attacks and politicians &
good institutions by armed Pakistani groups, the Indian
accusation against Pakistan after the Mumbai attacks
have reminded many of India’s 60-year old role as the
primary security threat.
.
Several leaders of armed Islamist groups in that region
vowed to lay down their arms against the government and
stand with Pakistan’s military in the event of a clash
with India, a turnaround for groups that in the past 6
years have killed more than 1,200 Pakistani troops.
.
Many ordinary people in Northwest cities, such as
Peshawar, are
wary of expressions of national unity and more inclined
to sympathize with
India’s position.
Hundreds of civilians have been killed and wounded by
insurgent attacks this year. The mounting violence has
sensitized the population to the government’s failure to
rein in terrorists within Pakistan.
