IV. International
(4-16-09)
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At the Group of 20
Summit earlier this month, leading nations agreed to
roughly $1 trillion of additional lending, mostly
through IMF to help end the world-wide slump. Beneath
the veil of consensus, countries are maneuvering to
protect their economies and blame someone else for the
crisis.
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Will the world economic order overcome these stresses to
give way to a global free-for-all, characterized by
rampant protectionism and nationalistic subsidies and
preferences? Emblematic of the tension is the proposal
of Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of
China (PBOC) to replace the US dollar as the world’s
major international currency. PBOC is the counterpart of
the Federal Reserve Board.
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The trouble with his proposal is the lack of viable
replacement for the dollar. The attraction of an
international currency depends on its presumed
stability, what it will bring and how easily it is to
invest. The euro (27% of government reserves) and
the yen (3%) don’t yet rival the dollar. China
has not even made its own currency (the renmimbi
or RMB) automatically convertible for Chinese
investments.
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Two American journalists
detained by North Korean soldiers, will be put on trial
for “hostile acts” and illegal entry. They are being
used by North Korea as international pawns for
its grandstanding.
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North Korea launched a long-range missile (4/5) defying
repeated international warnings, worrying its neighbors
and setting itself up for increased sanctions. The
launce violated UN Security Council sanctions.
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Based on satellite photos, the missile appeared to be
carrying a satellite payload that probably weighed 380
to 880 pounds. South Korea concurred that the payload on
the missile appeared to have been a satellite.
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Fishermen in the
Philippines accidentally caught and later ate a
mega-mouth shark, one of the rarest fishes in the world
with only 40 others recorded to have been encountered,
the World Wildlife Fund said. The shark weighed
1,100 pounds and was 13 feet long. It was the 8th
reported encounter in the Philippine seas.
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The mega-mouth was caught in 660-foot deep waters which
are also frequented by the endangered whale shark, the
world’s largest fish and also a filter-feeder in the
Donsal area of Sorsogon province, about 185 miles SE of
Manila
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The presence of two of the world’s 3 filter-feeding
sharks along with mantra rays and dolphins indicates
that the region’s maritime ecosystem was still
relatively healthy and shall continue to be protected.
Other mega-mouths have been encountered in California,
Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, Brazil, Ecuador, Senegal,
South Africa, Mexico and Australia
. Thailand’s
political divide has long been cast as a battle between
the urban middle class which formed the core of the
current government’s support and the rural poor which
back former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. In its recent
history, governments have been repeatedly brought down
by public protests.
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Tens of thousands of
demonstrators (about 80k) marched through Bangkok early
this month demanding the resignation of the PM (Abhisit
Vejjajiva) in a protest that threatened to set off a new
round of political instability which resulted in massive
protests culminating in Pattaya, canceling of the ASEAN
Summit.
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Thaksin and his allies pitched the standoff as a
campaign by democrats against the privileged and
unaccountable elite. His opponents have pointed to the
corruption and assaults on free speech that dogged
Thaksin’s government, casting the conflict as one
pitting ethics against shady self-interest. He called
for a revolt!
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Pres. Susilo B.
Yudhoyono of Indonesia was expected to start
talks with potential partners (4/10) after early
election results showed his party ahead but not by as
much as expected, damaging prospects for reform.
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The various parties will start jockeying to form
parliamentary coalitions and SBY’s choice of ally will
determine the extent to which he can improve the
judiciary and civil service as well as clamp down on
endemic corruption.
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His administration has delivered strong economic growth
and brought relative peace and stability to the world’s
most populous nation, which also has sizeable religious
minorities. But tackling graft has proved to be tougher.
. Malaysian
PM Najib Razak freed
13 people after being held under a security law that
allows indefinite detention, pledged to review statutes
under which they were caught to allay fears of a
crackdown against political dissent and lifted a ban on
two opposition newspapers (Harakah and Suona
Keadilan).
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Recent moves by the
government to stifle dissent, including sedition charges
against an opposition MP and a popular blogger had
fanned fears of a crackdown.
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The home minister (Syed Hamid) told Reuters that
two of the men freed were from a group fighting for
equal rights for ethnic Indians, while the rest were
from a terrorism-linked group.
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Kaing Klek Iev, known as
Duch, ran the Khmer Rouge’s most notorious torture
center (Tuol Sleng in Pnom Penh). An estimated 16k men,
women and children died there between 1975 and1979. He
is the only prominent member of the Khmer Rouge to
express remorse for its attempt to create a Communist
agrarian utopia, a political experiment that decimated
1.7 million lives (1/5 of the population) in Cambodia.
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The legal process for bringing Duch to trial has been
deeply controversial. The trial is expected to cost $150
million, $60 million of which has already been spent.
There have been accusations of government interference
intended to limit the scope of the charges and protect
some men from prosecution. There have also been
allegations of corruption by court officials.
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There had been autopsies carried out on live persons,
medical experimentation and people bled to death. There
were crimes against humanity admitted by Duch. Among the
forms of torture officially condoned was pouring water
up a victim’s nose. He disappeared briefly and
reinvented himself as an aid worker when he was
identified by a journalist in 1999.
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For the past 12 years,
US has pursued a policy of increasingly tight sanctions,
blocking imports, investments and all other financial
contracts and ultimate inspiring sanctions that target
individual junta members in Burma.
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Burma’s Asian neighbors tried the opposite approach,
attempting to bend the junta to their will with a charm
offensive known as constructive engagement
epitomized by the 1997 initiative to join the Assn. of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Neither path
produced results.
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Many diplomats and
regional analysts say the most likely solution is a
combination of carrot and stick: expanding aid
and lifting some of broad sanctions that have helped
slow Burma’s economic development to a crawl while
hitting the bank accounts and travel plans of those who
benefit from the regime.
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There has been a growing
concern in New Delhi that BHO administration will try to
push India to make peace with Pakistan as the
latter confronts an increasingly active Islamist
insurgency.
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The visit of US special envoy Richard Holbrooke was his
first since BHO announced a new strategy for the region
that involves increasing the number of US troops in
Afghanistan and providing more military ad developmental
aid to Pakistan.
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India said talks with Pakistan cannot resume until the
government in Islamabad takes concerted action against
those that engineered the deadly attacks in Mumbai which
left 170 people dead, including 10 Americans.
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A suicide bomber
detonated explosives (3/27) in a crowded mosque in NW
Pakistan, killing at least 50 people and leaving more
bodies buried in the rubble of the building, officials
said. The attack came just hours before BHO introduced a
new strategy in Washington to fight terror and extremism
in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.
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As BHO puts in motion a new strategic initiative in
Afghanistan and Pakistan, supply lines remain vulnerable
to attacks and a black market is still thriving in
stolen military hardware and computers. As the number of
US troops and advisers grows this summer, the threat to
supply lines and stolen equipment could compromise the
mission, military analysts say.
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Strengthening Pakistan’s weak civilian institutions,
updating political parties rooted in feudal loyalties
and recasting a military fixated on yesterday’s enemy
and stuck in the traditions of conventional warfare are
generational challenges. But Pakistan may have the
luxury of the long term to meet them.
